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Kathmandu, Bagmati Zone, Nepal
I am Basan Shrestha from Kathmandu, Nepal. I use the term 'BASAN' as 'Balancing Actions for Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Resources'. I am a Design, Monitoring & Evaluation professional. I hold 1) MSc in Regional and Rural Development Planning, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand, 2002; 2) MSc in Statistics, Tribhuvan University (TU), Kathmandu, Nepal, 1995; and 3) MA in Sociology, TU, 1997. I have more than 10 years of professional experience in socio-economic research, monitoring and documentation on agricultural and natural resource management. I had worked in Lumle Agricultural Research Centre, western Nepal from Nov. 1997 to Dec. 2000; CARE Nepal, mid-western Nepal from Mar. 2003 to June 2006 and WTLCP in far-western Nepal from June 2006 to Jan. 2011, Training Institute for Technical Instruction (TITI) from July to Sep 2011, UN Women Nepal from Sep to Dec 2011 and Mercy Corps Nepal from 24 Jan 2012 to 14 August 2016 and CAMRIS International in Nepal commencing 1 February 2017. I have published articles to my credit.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Combination of Outcomes With Replacement and Tree Diagram, Statistical Note 12

A bag contains three balls of different colors (A of Blue color, B Green and C Red). Select two balls one randomly one at a time and replace back to the bag after selecting. Calculate the total number of combination of possible outcomes containing two balls selected with replacement.

Calculating the total number of outcomes using some objects selected randomly one at a time with replacement from the total number of objects is important to calculate the probability of events. Also, important is a mathematical concept of the ‘Combination’ used in identifying the total number of possible outcomes given the condition and calculating the probability of events. I show the combination of total number outcomes using the tree diagram 1.














Diagram 1: Combination of Outcomes in Selecting Two Out of Three Balls With Replacement

There will be two stages required to select or arrange two of three balls. At the first stage or draw, there are three possibilities of randomly selecting the first ball. The first ball could be one of Blue (A), Green (B) or Green (C) balls shown by boxes of those letters and colors in Diagram 1. Once the first ball, Blue (A), is drawn and replaced back, there will be again all three balls in the bag, A, B and C for the second stage or draw. If the second ball drawn is again A, the first outcome constituting two balls is AA which is numbered 1 on the right most side of the diagram 1. Following the same process, if the second ball drawn is Green (B), the second outcome is AB, numbered 2 in the diagram 1. In the same way, if the first ball is B and second ball is A, the outcome is BA which is same as the outcome AB if the position of the ball whether the first or second is not meaningful. Thus, the outcome BA is also numbered 2 in the diagram. Thus, there are six combinations each with two balls selected randomly with replacement from three balls.

Now, I will let you brainstorm how many will be the outcomes with replacement if there are five balls out of which two balls are drawn one at a time with replacement? Could you use a diagram to show all possible outcomes? Perhaps, difficult to show. Although, the diagrammatic logic is important to understand, as the number of balls increases, the diagram becomes complicated and it will be less possible to show all outcomes in the diagram. One may need to use the formula. Could you calculate using a formula? If yes, that is fine. If not, wait for my other statistical notes.

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