More Females but Richer Households

Basan Shrestha, Research, Monitoring and Evaluation Expert

basan_shrestha@yahoo.com, basanshrestha70@gmail.com

Female population increased and poverty rate decreased in Nepal. Sex ratio of males per 100 females decreased from 99.8 in 2001 population census to 94.2 in 2011. Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS) 2011 disclosed that poverty rate decreased from 30.8 percent in 2004 to 25.2 percent in 2011.  It indicated that households with more females were richer. Relationship between sex ratio and poverty rate was evident more in mid-west than in other regions of Nepal. Likewise, relationship was evident in rural areas.

NLSS 2010/11 estimated poverty line at Nepalese rupees 19,261 per capita annual consumption. Small Area Estimation of Poverty report published in 2013, using data from NLSS 2011 and Population Census 2011 estimated poverty rates of 976 sub-districts (Ilaka) which constituted 3,968 Village Development Committees (VDCs) and municipalities (MPs) located in 75 districts of all five regions including – 1,215 VDCs/ MPs of 19 districts in centre, 907 of 16 districts in east, 876 of 16 districts in west, 581 of 15 districts in mid-west and 389 of nine districts in far-west. Sex ratios for VDCs/ MPs in those Ilakas were taken from census report 2011 and compared with poverty rates to establish overall relationship, regional difference and rural-urban difference in predictability of poverty rate based on sex ratio.

In nutshell, households with more females were richer although relation between sex ratio and poverty rate was not very strong. It could be because households with more females might have male members away for employment. However, there could be many other factors that explained variation in poverty rates. Thus, sex ratio is important but not sufficient to predict poverty rate.

Overall Relation

In a regression analysis between sex ratio as explanatory variable and poverty rate as response variable regression coefficient was statistically significant indicating with 95 percent confidence that for each reduction in sex ratio, poverty rate will decrease by 0.28 percent. It indicated that bigger number of females in a family higher chances of its being rich. However, sex ratio poorly predicted, only 4 percent of variation in poverty rate as indicated by coefficient of determination.

Poor predictability of poverty rate could be because 64 percent VDCs/ MPs had more females as their sex ratios were less than national average ratio. Unlike, 46 percent VDCs/ MPs were rich as they had poverty rates less than national average rate, which was significantly lower than 53 percent of VDCs/ MPs that had sex ratios less than national average ratio had also poverty rates less than national average revealing that families with more females are likely to be rich. Among all VDCs/ MPs, average sex ratio ranged from 145.1 males per 100 females (Manang VDC of Manang district in west) to 64. 5 (Sari VDC of Pyuthan district in mid-west). Average poverty rate ranged from 72.8 percent (Kankada and Raksirang VDCs of Makwanpur district in centre) to 0.5 percent (Imadol VDC, Lalitpur district in centre).

Regional Difference

In a regression analysis, coefficients were significant indicating with 95 confidence that for each reduction in sex ratio, poverty rate decreased by 0.70, 0.50, 0.46 and 0.23 percentage points respectively in mid-west, east, west and centre. More females in a family had higher chances of being rich. Coefficient in far-west (0.02) was not significant. Sex ratio determined moderately to poorly variation in poverty rate by 26, 15, 7 and 3 percent respectively in mid-west, west, east and centre. Sex ratio hardly determined poverty rate in far-west indicating that far-western households had almost similar well-being status whether households had more or less number of females.

West had highest number of females as 83 percent VDCs/ MPs had sex ratios lesser than national average ratio, followed by far-west (78 percent), east (72 percent), mid-west (59 percent) and centre (42 percent). West had highest number of rich households as 61 percent western VDCs/ MPs were richer as they had  poverty rates less than  national average rate, followed by centre (55 percent), east (54 percent), mid-west (23 percent) and far-west (1 percent). Those proportions of VDCs/ MPs were significantly lower than proportion of VDCs/ MPs that had sex ratios less than national average ratio had also poverty rates less than national average in four regions (mid-west, centre, west and east) except in far-west. It revealed that in VDCs/ MPs of those reasons families with more females were likely to be rich in those four regions.

Rural-Urban Difference

Government designates VDCs and municipalities as rural and urban areas respectively. In a regression analysis, coefficient was significant in rural areas indicating with 95 percent confidence that with a unit decrease in sex ratio poverty rate will decrease by 0.28 percent. Thus, more females in a family increased their well-being status. In urban areas,  coefficient was almost nil and statistically insignificant indicating with less than 95 percent confidence that with unit decrease in  sex ratio  poverty rate will hardly decrease by 0.1 percent. Irrespective of decrease in sex ratio poverty rate will almost remain stagnant. Urban households had almost similar well-being status whether households had more or less number of females.  

Rural areas had more females than in urban areas, as 64 percent VDCs and 47 percent MPs had their sex ratios were less than  national average ratio. Likewise, rural areas were poorer than urban areas, as 46 percent VDCs and 81 percent MPs had poverty rates less than national average rate. Rural areas that had significantly higher number of females were richer as well as 52 percent VDCs that had sex ratios less than national average ratio had also poverty rates less than national average. Unlike, urban areas that higher number of females were not significantly richer as 81 percent MPs that had  sex ratios less than  national average ratio had also poverty rates less than  national average.

Conclusively, more females in a household meant household was rich. Those households might have their male members out for employment. However, relationship between sex ratio and poverty rate was not very clearly seen as there could be many factors determining poverty rates.